Photo: Evan Schiller
And just like that, it is time for the second major championship of the 2023 PGA Tour season. This year’s PGA Championship takes place at The East Course at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York. It is playing as a par 70 at almost 7,400 yards from the tournament tees. It is certainly a stern test for even the best players in the world. Since 2003 there have been four major golf events that have been hosted at Oak Hill, two PGA championships and two Senior PGA Championships. The winning scores in order from lowest to highest have been -10, -4, -3, and +7! This is not your typical tour event set up for some type of birdie fest. It is hard to say what will be the biggest contributing factor towards winning this week. It seems like a hard type of place for anyone who is a ‘specialist’ type of player to come in and win at. So with that in mind, let us dive into our picks for this week. We normally have one pick from the top, middle, and bottom of the odds board. With it being a major this week, we will throw in a bonus pick as well. Let’s get to it!
Tony Finau
It is Tony Fianu’s time. He is both a good course fit and is in good form. There is debate on whether it is more important to drive the ball long or straight at Oak Hill. Well, for Tony the answer does not matter because he does both very well. What has really changed in an appreciable way for Finau in the last two years is he has become one of the premier iron players in the world. His ball striking stats are truly eye popping. He won in Mexico two starts ago, which may seem inconsequential, but he went head to head with Rahm and held him off on Sunday, showing he will not back down against the biggest starts in the game. The only real hesitation here is that his major record is below the standard for a player of his caliber. His best finish ever is a solo third, but has never really come close to winning one. He has played in majors consistently since 2015 and has plenty of made cuts, but so few noteworthy finishes. This time around is different. He is in good form, at a good course for him, and he is a considerably better player than he ever has been before. Look for Tony Finau to get the win this week at Oak Hill.
Tom Kim
If it does turn out this week that being in the fairway reigns supreme above all else, Tom Kim is going to pop this week. He is the second most accurate driver of the ball on tour (behind Russel Henley) hitting 70% of his fairways. He capitalizes on being in the fairway so frequently and is one of the premier iron players on Tour. Some people will balk at his length off the tee and say he cannot win at a place like this. He has just fallen victim to some really poor putting performances as of late. In fact this whole season there is only one event in which he has gained more than 1.00 strokes putting for the event. It was the Shriners back in the fall which he won! This pick rests mostly on the thought process that his putter will warm up for him this week, and if it does, expect to see Tom Kim finish in the Top 5.
Harris English
This is almost entirely a form pick. We hadn’t seen much from Harris English this year until his last start. He put up a very solid T3 finish in the Wells Fargo Championship, giving him two top 3 finishes in designated events this season. Statistically English gets it done around and on the greens, while the rest of his game is about fairly tour average. The phrase about winners of professional golf events usually coming from the best putters of the best ball strikers is the argument in favor of Harris English finding success this week. He is always a high quality putter, and he put up 2.03 strokes gained approach in his last start, which is some really high quality ball striking. If he keeps that iron play in form, the putter will cooperate just like always. Look for Harris English to grab a Top 10 finish this week.
Alex Smalley
Alex Smalley is an above average driver of the golf ball. He is 76 on Tour in total driving. Stack on top of that, that he is 5th in approach from shots of 150-175 yards in length. Put that all together and you have a compelling formula to have success at Oak Hill this week. He may not be a big name, but he is in good form currently. His last start was The Wells Fargo Championship and he finished T18 in that designated event. We aren’t going crazy on his projection here, but we are going with another Top 20 finish from Alex Smalley this week at The PGA Championship.
