Photo: quailhollowclub.com
We are back at a familiar venue for this year’s Wells Fargo Championship: Quail Hollow! The private club in Charlotte, North Carolina has hosted numerous PGA Tour events and most recently the 2022 Presidents Cup. It is a big boy golf course coming in at around 7,600 yards from the tournament tees. Now the golfing public has pretty mixed opinions on what level of quality Quail Hollow actually possesses. Maybe it is just a hangover from the excitement of the Presidents Cup, but I for one am looking forward to seeing the golf course again. This is another designated event for this season. So that means we have another 20 million dollar purse and another stacked field of contenders ready to play for their share of it (and of course the coveted FedEx Cup points that go along with it). With all that being said, let us begin our picks. The usual format is in play, one pick from the top, middle, and bottom of the odds board.
Viktor Hovland
Viktor Hovland has played in this event at Quail Hollow one time, the 2021 edition, and he finished T3. His average adjusted strokes gained on this course leads the field this week at 3.26. While you could claim small sample size with him only playing four competitive rounds here, this course fits everything in his game. The fact that it plays so long is an advantage to him as he averages 305 yards off the tee (48th on tour). He is a premier ball striker which helps him at every venue he plays not just here. We all know Viktor’s short game is what holds him back usually. Quail Hollow has that classic course style of thick rough right around a lot of the greens. This makes it easier for him as chipping and pitching off of tight, grainy lies is usually what gives him more trouble than traditional thick rough. While his last start out was his worst finish of the year, Harbour Town presents an entirely different challenge than Quail Hollow does. Viktor has been in good form this year and will get right back on track this week. Viktor is my pick to win this week at Quail Hollow.
Emiliano Grillo
Form matters, and there are few players in the field this week that are coming in with as good of form as Emiliano Grillo. His last two starts he has finished T5 in Mexico and T7 at Harbour Town. Those are obviously two very different courses and events, but the fact that he was able to grab a T7 in the last designated event speaks volumes about where Grillo’s game is at. The biggest contributor to this good run of for is his iron play. It is a stripe show for Grillo right now with his irons. Almost every time he has the ball in the fairway it is a green light situation for him and he has been stuffing it close with regularity the last two times out. I like Grillo to continue his streak of finishing inside the top ten this week at The Wells Fargo Championship.
Alejandro Tosti
Does this name sound familiar? Maybe it is because he finished T10 last week in The Mexico Open. Or, more likely than that, it is because he was the central figure in the Korn Ferry Tour controversy of players who got a ride from 18 green to 1 tee in a tournament and were assessed a two stroke penalty. His name is way down towards the bottom of the odds board. He is a player who has spent most of his career playing PGA Tour Latinoamerica events with mixed results of success. He profiles well for Quail Hollow. According to data golf he hits the ball two standard deviations further off the tee than your average tour player. Then on top of that, he is a tour average iron player. With the rest of his game being shaky at times, he profiles as more of the classic bomb and gouge type player. With that being said, he is a bomb and gouge player in good form. With where he is on the odds board this week I think he is being overlooked by the public. Look for Alejandro Tosti to grab a top 20 finish this week.
