The Open Championship returns to Royal Troon for the first time since the epic duel between Henrik Stenson and Phil Mickelson in 2016 when Stenson outlasted Phil in one of the greatest performances in the history of golf. With hopes sky high for another showdown of that caliber, the golfing world turns it’s full attention to the Scottish coast for the final men’s major of the 2024 season. Troon might not be as bold and brash as some of the other links tests that exist on the open course rota, but do not for a moment think that it isn’t a true links course. It takes exacting accuracy, imaginative thinking, and deft touch to navigate your way around this course. One feature that is slightly different than most links courses is that the greens are flatter than a lot of the other courses on the rota, leading to some outstanding putting performances we have seen here over the years. With the stage now set, let us dive into our four picks for The Open Championship from all around the odds board!
Collin Morikawa
Morikawa already has an Open Championship victory on his resume that he grabbed in 2021 and I think this week he adds a second to his trophy case. Collin is in great form with his last six starts resulting in four top 4 finishes with his worst finish in that span being a T14. His average length off the tee hurts him less at Troon than it does at other venues because of the premium the course puts on precision. When I think of a precision test, I think of Morikawa who is one of the most accurate players in the world in all categories of play. In the recent past, Collin’s putter has been what has let him down. We have seen our fair share of jabby strokes and confounded looks on his face as his ball breaks away from the whole in it’s final revolutions. That however, has been a less and less frequent occurrence this season. Collin is 1.5 Standard Deviations better at putting this season than an average tour player. With the tame conditions that are expected this week at Troon, I think this is the week Collin grabs his second Open Championship and third major title overall.
Aaron Rai
The two gloved wonder Aaron Rai gives me Morikawa lite vibes when I watch him. When you check out his datagolf page, the statistics back it up. The profiles are shockingly similar (good at everything just shorter off the tee than average). I can’t sit here and tout the chances for Morikawa to win and not also feel good about Rai going into this event. Rai is also in some fantastic form right now. In his last three events he has finished T4, T7, and T2. He has been riding a hot putter in some ways, but I think Troon is not a place that would slow down that trend, if anything it may add fuel to the fire. I think Rai gets his best career major finish and finishes inside the top 10 at The Open Championship this week.
Akshay Batia
We have not seen Akshay since his heartbreaking runner up finish at The Rocket Mortgage a few weeks back. Akshay was in good form with back to back top five finishes before taking a break to make sure he was in peak physical condition for this Open Championship. Akshay has a mixed bag in his only four major starts this far in his career, however the most recent major (US Open) was his best result yet of T16. His game feels like one that is built for links golf. He has always been a unique thinker in the golf world and I think we will see that creativity come alive in his game this week. Look for Akshay to grab a top ten finish this week at Royal Troon.
Rasmus Hojgaard
Last year when Brian Harman became Champion Golfer of The Year, he came into the tournament around 125-1 odds. Rasmus is currently sitting at 150-1 odds to win the event. While I do not think that Rasmus is going to win the event, I do think that he will put out a great showing and finish high on the leaderboard. He is currently in some of his better form of the season right now coming in off a T4 and a T21 in his last two starts. I am really high on Rasmus long term and when you think a guy has “it” you see some results pop up a little earlier than expected that might catch other folks off guard. His best finish ever in a major is only a T68 but I think he blows past it this week. With the relatively benign conditions expected this week, his smash it off the tee and putt it really well strategy should hold up better this week than during most majors. I expect Rasmus to grab a top 20 finish this week at The Open Championship.
