Photo Credit: Golf Sustainable
We are moving from one classic California golf course to a set of them this week for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro Am. This tournament has a cut after the first three rounds in which players will play a round each at Pebble Beach, Spyglass Hill, and Monterey Peninsula Country Club Shore Course. This tournament shares a structure with AMEX which I think makes it a compelling watch over the first three days. While the field was certainly stronger overall at AMEX, the trio of courses that are being played this week for the Pebble Beach Pro Am are captivating to watch. Now these courses are all shorter courses than your average tour stop. Pebble comes in at just over 7,000 yards and it is the longest of the courses that will be played this week. Now Pebble has the smallest greens on tour which can give players fits, the other main defenses for the courses being played this week are unique architecture and the natural conditions. The courses are thoughtfully designed with well placed hazards and interesting green contours, which can be accentuated when the wind really starts to blow on the California coast.
Per usual this week we will take a look at the odds board for our picks. We will take one from the top of the board, one from the middle, and one from the bottom, and predict some quality finishes for those players. With that let us start at the top.
Denny McCarthy
We start towards the top of the board and set our sights on Denny McCarthy. Denny really had his career take a step forward last season as he recorded five top 10 finishes in PGA events. Denny is someone who isn’t a bomber of the ball. He is Tour average in driving distance, accuracy, and approach play, but he is a menace around the greens and on the greens. With none of these courses playing long, it gives him a better chance this week than your average PGA Tour week. In the 2023 PGA Tour season he has one top ten finish so far, but he hasn’t missed a cut since the Shriners and that is the only cut he has missed so far this year. As far as his history at this specific event, he has three past starts. He has made the cut twice and in the event last year he registered a T12 finish. Then we take a look at the field this week and the only real powerhouse names we see on the board are Spieth, Fitzpatrick, and Hovland. The field is wide open this week and we see Denny McCarthy sliding into the power void at the top of the field this week. He will be in contention to win and we think has the floor of a top 5 finish this week.
Kevin Streelman
As we move our way down the board we come across a familiar name, Kevin Streelman. From 2016-2021 he never finished worse than T17 at this event. Through all the different seasons of his career, you could almost set your watch to a top 20 for Streelman in this event. He broke this streak last year when he missed the cut at this event, but that was the result of one blow up round at Spyglass. Without that he would probably still have perhaps the most unusual streak for a player at an event on tour. His recent form is fine, a mixed bag through the 2023 season. He has six made cuts and three missed cuts with his best result being a T20 at Shriners. That doesn’t really concern us though as he has rarely been in peak form heading into this event. There is something about the set up of this event that he just thrives under. He is an accurate player who lacks great distance and has been trapped by an inconsistent putter this year. We have seen him roll it well on these courses before and that experience should pay dividends this week. We think that Streelman will regain his high level form at this event. Let’s expect a top 20 this week from Streelman at Pebble Beach.
Eric Cole
As we tumble down the odds board we land on Eric Cole. Eric Cole is a PGA Tour rookie who has had a bit of an up and down start to his Tour career. He earned his tour card this year via the Korn Ferry Tour Finals He missed his first four cuts, then turned it around by making his next five. Now he is coming off a missed cut at Farmers, but that isn’t a huge concern. When examining Eric Cole’s game, it looks fairly similar to the game of Denny McCarthy. He has been less accurate in approach and off the tee than Denny, but he is a menace around and on the greens just like he is. If we believe in Denny McCarthy, we have to also believe more in Eric Cole this week than most weeks. Data golf agrees with this assessment. They have him as the 9th best course fit in the field this week. He isn’t someone who has had the most decorated amateur career and he isn’t on the Taylor Montgomery path at the start of his rookie season here, but he is someone who’s skills should translate well this week. Be on the lookout for at least a top 30 finish from Eric Cole this week.
