Photo: Joe Passov / Links Magazine
This week on the PGA Tour we are treated to a classic venue, Torrey Pines South Course. As we head into this week Jon Rahm is seemingly the only name people have any interest in talking about, and with some good reason. Rahm has won both of his last two starts at The Sentry TOC and last week at AMEX. He shot -27 in both tournaments meaning his last 8 rounds of competitive golf have been played at -54 which is a staggering number. He is now the overwhelming favorite coming into this week at only +450 on the betting market to win. He also has an astoundingly good history at this venue. His results are littered with top 10 finishes, including a win here in 2017. When you put his current form together with his history on the course, it is no wonder that Rahm is the heavy favorite to win the event at Torrey Pines this week.
With that being said, we don’t just go for the low hanging fruit for our preview and picks segment here at FPG. So per usual we will look at the odds board and discuss one of our favorites to perform well this week from the top, middle, and bottom of the odds board coming into this event.
Top Shelf Pick: Taylor Montgomery
In a golf world that is being set aflame by Jon Rahm’s heater, there is one man who is arguably in just as good of form and that is Taylor Montgomery. He has made nine starts so far in his rookie season on Tour. In those nine starts he has made all nine cuts, and has eight top 15 finishes. He has already collected just under two million dollars in earnings this season and shows no signs of slowing. He was in contention last week at AMEX until an untimely hosel rocket on the 71st hole of the tournament put his ball in the water on the par 3 17th, ultimately landing him in solo 5th for the event. On top of his great form, he seems to be a good fit for the course as well. Torrey Pines is a big hitters ball park. From the tips it plays at just over 7,800 yards and if the conditions are really blowing at there, it can be one of the most rigorous non major tests for the season. Montgomery is a longer hitter than average on the PGA Tour, but his real strength lies on the greens. He is perhaps the premier putter on Tour. He has only lost strokes on the green in eight rounds this season, and never more than -.9. While his positive SG weeks have often times been massive with 8 rounds over 2 SG on the green and having eclipsed 4 SG three times, maxing out at a round of 6.0 SG gained in a round at The C.J Cup. When you hit it as far as Montgomery does, and then you have the safety net of the world class putting, you will be in contention time and time again. We do not see this week as an exception and expect Taylor Montgomery to finish in the Top 5 this week.
Mid Table Magic: Robby Shelton
Robby Shelton had a T3 at The Barbasol… 8 years ago. He is only 27 years old now. To have a finish like that at the age he was then, sets expectations pretty high for the rest of your golfing career. His time on tour has been marked by inconsistency. If you look at his stint on the PGA Tour in 2020 and 2021 he barely made more cuts than he missed. That trend continued on to his time on KFT in 2022 but the difference was he had some serious spike weeks, grabbing two wins and a T2 on The KFT last season. Now if you take a look so far at his 2023 PGA Tour season he has made the cut in 7 of his 9 starts. It seems as if he is playing with a higher floor to his game than usual. He is also maintaining some of his high level high variance play though. He has 3 top 15 finishes so far this season including his best finish of the season at AMEX last week with a T6. So far this season in large part he is doing it with some magic around the greens. He is 1.5 standard deviations better around the green this year than your average tour player according to his data golf skills profile. He does not project to be a great course fit over at Torrey Pines as he has slightly below average length. However, we feel good about the form he is in and think he is being undervalued in comparison to his peers so far. We feel confident that Shelton will finish inside of the top 20 this week.
Big Odds Big Dreams: Kevin Tway
We go way down to near the bottom of the odds board to find Kevin Tway. This folks is nothing more than purely a course fit choice. Tway is a long hitter of the golf ball and a slightly above average putter. In this way he is seemingly an extremely discount Taylor Montgomery in this event. There truly isn’t too much to say. His career on tour has been jam picked with missed cuts as of late. His best form in his career was certainly from 2017-2019, but he has managed to keep his tour card since then. He does have a PGA Tour win to his name so he does know how to get the job done and what it feels like to be in contention. And while we do not think he will be in true contention for the week, we think he has a real shot for a Top 20 finish this week at Farmers.
