Photo Credit: Golfbreaks.com
This week the PGA Tour takes it’s action over to Copperhead Golf Course at Innisbrook Resort for The Valspar Championship. The skill profile for players who tend to succeed here is similar to that of TPC Sawgrass. Driving accuracy tends to be rewarded here over distance. At just about 7,200 yards it is not a short course, but it allows more varieties of players to thrive other than just the bombers off the tee. This is also a course that seems to have the same players perform well here consistently. In fact, since 2018, there have only been two winners here. Sam Burns has won the last two years and Paul Casey won the two prior (The event was cancelled in 2020 because of COVID). With these things in mind, we turn our eyes to this week’s field to make our picks for the 2023 edition of this event. We will follow our standard format with one player from the top, middle, and bottom of the odds board.
Keegan Bradley
Keegan Bradley may have missed the cut here last year, but in 2021 he finished as the runner up. He has played 20 rounds in this event over the course of his career thus far. In the 2023 season so far his best results are a win, solo 2nd, and a T5. He is objectively playing the best golf of since 2019 from a strokes gained perspective. Keegan is an accurate player in regards to his approach play and his play off the tee. This year when you look at his results it usually all comes down to his putter. He has only missed the cut one time this year when he gained strokes putting for a tournament. That was last week at The Players and he only gained .02 strokes putting. Every other event in which he has gained strokes putting, his worst result is a T21. His approach play and play off the tee are quite consistent and we see no reason for that to change this week. We are really just projecting him to have a positive week putting. If he does that, combined with his course experience and his usual approach play, we should see a great finish from Keegan. He should be contending for the win this week and should have a floor of a top five finish this week.
Matthew NeSmith
This projection is entirely based on course history. NeSmith has only played this event twice, and his two finishes are T3 and T21. His form is not great. He made the cut at API but missed it at The Players, WM, and Riviera. NeSmith statistically is an average PGA Tour player except in his driving accuracy. That is where he stands out from others, he is above average in his driving accuracy. Which may be what makes him a good fit for this course. His fall series this year he showed good form. He recorded three top 10 finishes including a T2 at Shriners. This shows that while his form may not be top notch recently, he does have it in him to perform well against this current crop of PGA Tour players. His form outweighs his course history in the eyes of odds makers as he is firmly in the middle of the odds board this week. Look for a spike week from NeSmith and a top 10 finish.
Dylan Wu
There are a few things that are projecting in favor of Dylan Wu this week. He ranks 40th on The Tour with a fairway percentage of 63.09% which is very respectable. With the premium on driving accuracy this week this should play in his favor. He also has been flashing some really solid form. He has made the cut in the last four events that he has played in. He had a T10 at The Honda and posted a T35 last week at The Players in a loaded field. This week’s field looks a lot more similar to The Honda then it does The Players. Overall, he is 8 for 11 on made cuts this year which is an encouraging trend for him. Especially considering he missed 14 cuts overall last year. All in all he is a player that is trending upwards in his game right now and we think he is being severely undervalued this week at The Valspar. Look for a top 20 finish from Dylan Wu this week.
