Photo Credit: golfzoo.com
We are back in the world of designated events after a one week break for The Honda Classic. Obviously we have a start studded field as a result, that are all vying for arguably the second most coveted piece of outerwear in the world of professional golf, the red cardigan. This tournament returns to Bay Hill, which comes in at just under 7,400 yards in length. This is a classic Florida golf course. The main defenses it throws at the players are loads of water and thick penal rough. Last year the course set up really rubbed some players the wrong way. Rory was on record saying that the rough was too penal, that good shots were not being rewarded properly. It certainly was a tough test last year. Scottie Scheffler came away with the victory at only -5, which is a result that reminds you more of a U.S Open than a regular PGA Tour event. With all this in mind, let us get to our picks for the week. Our usual format of one player from the top, middle, and bottom of the odds board might have a loose interpretation this week. When you have a field like this, I think it is more than understandable.
Max Homa
With the insane run of form that Max Homa has been on, I thought there was no way he would be outside the top 5 favorites for The API this week. I was shocked to see him sitting at 8th on the odds board. Only Jon Rahm is playing better golf on a consistent basis than Homa is this year. In Max’s last four events, three of which have been designated events, he has a win, 2nd, T3, and T39. Max has played in The API three times and has recorded finishes of T24, T10, and a T17 in last years contest. This shows a solid enough track record on this course in his past playing it that I do not think he is a bad course fit this week by any means. Most importantly, Max is just a different tier of player than he used to be. He is a legitimate threat in every tournament he enters regardless of the field. Max has a style of game that projects well to win at Bay Hill too. Past winners here include Scottie Scheffler, Tyrrell Hatton, Francesco Molinari, Marc Leishman, and Jason Day. These guys are all in the same vain as far as style of play as Max. Not bombers, no true specialty to their game, just solid all around players who know how to avoid trouble, while still staying aggressive. We love Max to win this week at Bay Hill!
Keith Mitchell
Now I know what you may be thinking, this isn’t the middle of the odds board! To that I say, yes you are correct. Keith Mitchell is sitting at 21st on the odds board currently. Now, I will defend it in the sense of we are not just rolling out Rahm, Rory, and Scottie as our picks this week. We couldn’t pass up highlighting Mitchell this week because the combination of projective models and form of player align to make this a super green light, neon flashing arrows, all pointing towards Keith Mitchell. Keith Mitchell finished solo 5th in his last appearance at Genesis. He is also the number one player in the field as far as course fit goes according to datagolf. He has never missed the cut in this event and has a best ever finish of T6 in 2019. With that, I would say that Keith Mitchell is playing the best and most consistent golf of his career right now. Taking this all together I thought he would be inside of the top 15 on the odds board this week, but again he is sitting at 21st. We are projecting him for a top 5 finish this week at The API
Adrian Meronk
A career Euro tour player with only three career PGA tour non major starts to his name. Two of them being this year at The Genesis and Honda the last two weeks, with the other being the co sanctioned Scottish open between the DP World Tour and PGA Tour last year. He seems to be starting to make the jump to playing more full time on the PGA tour with his recent schedule. Meronk is 52nd in the OWGR right now (yes I know there are flaws to that but we have nothing better to go off of as of now) and 73rd in the datagolf rankings. While there is a slight disparity here, it shows that at least he is not a full blown manipulator of the world rankings and has some legitimacy to his game. He finished T45 at Genesis but T14 at The Honda, showing some better form than the previous week. I think him making the cut in his first designated event is a good sign that he can at least hang in a field with the top guys in the game. Meronk as a player is about tour average in driving accuracy, approach play, and play around the greens. His strengths are that he is longer off the tee than average and is a good putter. He is a more middle of the board pick this week around guys like Wyndham Clark and Joel Dahman. We like the fact that he has been getting his feet wet with some PGA Tour starts the last couple of weeks and think that he will settle in nicely this week. Also, looking at the weather for the week in Orlando, it is supposed to be pristine conditions. Except for the wind on Friday, which should get up into the high teens in MPH on Friday afternoon and evening. This makes the late to early tee time combination more desirable this week, which is the exact set up that Meronk has. Look for Meronk to record a top 20 finish this week at The API.
