Plantation Course Photo Credit: Dave Sanson
We are back for what is to most people the official start of the 2023 PGA season. While the FedEx Cup standings do reflect the fact that we did have a fall part to this season, the spirit behind this event really does feel like a kickoff party more than anything else. This event is back at the Plantation Course at Kapalua. This course plays at 7,596 yards for the pros, but length is not the main defense of the course. It is a fairly open course, with wide fairways and generous greens. The main defense for the course is wind, and if it does not blow up to its usual standards, the pros can be hyper aggressive and put up some seriously red numbers. That is how you get a scenario like last year when Jon Rahm shot a -33 for the tournament and lost by one shot to Cam Smith. Looking ahead it seems as if we are in for another tame weather week at Kapalua so I think it is fair to expect maybe not as low of scores as last year, but still some dazzling under par performances for the week from the top players in the field.
Now who will those top players in the field be? Let’s make some picks! Per usual, we want to highlight one player from the top of the odds list, one from the middle, and one from the bottom who we believe in this week.
Collin Morikawa has never finished worse than T7 in this event in his career. While that is admittedly a smaller sample size, it certainly highlights that there is something about this course and the event in general that suits his game. Many people think that Collin’s 2022 was a let down. However, if you take a look at his strokes gained on data golf, it is literally almost a flat line for his career since he turned pro. He just hovers between an average of 1.5 and 2 strokes gained. What changed some last year is his bad rounds looked a little more like blow up rounds than they did in seasons past. This buried him down the leader board in some surprising events last year in ways that we are not used to. However, I think this is the right place and time for Morikawa not to show the world that he is back, but that he has never left. Collin is hyper competitive and wants to show the world that he is still a top dog in the world of golf, and what better place to do that then at the first elevated event in the new PGA Tour set up.
Looking down the odds board a bit we find Sahith Theegala. Sahith had a stellar fall. He grabbed a T6, T5, and a T2. Depending on how you view it, perhaps more importantly he picked up his first win, albeit in an unofficial event, at the QBE Shootout with Tom Hoge just a few weeks back. Sahith is in good form, has world class talent, and is hungry to prove himself. When you combine all of those things it would not shock me if Sahith got the win this week. However, this is his first time playing in this event and he is playing against many guys who this is a staple on their schedule by now. We will officially pick Sahith for a Top 5 this week to kick off the 2023 part of his season, continuing his strong form from the fall.
Down around the bottom of the board you will find J.T Poston. He won the John Deere Classic last year, going wire to wire which is an impressive feat. What you are looking for in this group of players is not so much consistency as it is spike week potential. Last year Poston collected a win, T2, and a T3. The T2 was at The Travelers and the T3 was The RBC Heritage at Harbour Town. These are a notch above your standard PGA Tour event and even though his win was at the John Deere, which is often used as a punching bag reference of an event, he dominated in wire to wire fashion. I don’t care what event you win wire to wire on the PGA Tour that is impressive. Poston has the chance for a spike week anytime he tees it up. This week, we like Poston to put up a surprising top 10 finish against a strong field of opponents at Kapalua.
A wild card we just wanted to acknowledge is the return of Will Zalatoris! A back injury has kept him out since the BMW last season. The combination of his stature and his forceful swing has made him the subject of some skepticism about his long term durability. Hopefully, this is just a one off incident that will not be a recurring theme throughout his career. He is one of the premier young talents in the game and we are excited to see what he does in his return to competitive golf.