Tony Finau was the first wire to wire winner we have had on the PGA Tour since J.T Poston did so at the 2022 John Deere Classic. It is no surprise that he greatly outpaced the field this week when you look at his amazing statistical profile from the week. Finau hit the most fairways of anyone in the field, hit the most greens in regulation, and then had the second most strokes gained putting. Stack all of that on top of someone who is one of the longest hitters in the world, and it is a recipe for a dominant win. Which is exactly what Finau did this weekend edging out Tyson Alexander who finished solo second by four strokes.
With this win we see a bit of an extended run of form for Finau. Going back to the 3M Open from last season, Finau has won 3 of his last 7 starts on the tour. With his wins coming at the 3M, The Rocket Mortgage Classic, and The Houston Open, there is some quibbling over his wins and whether they mean anything in the big picture of the golfing landscape. While there is only one more ‘normal’ PGA Tour event left this season and we will not see much of Tony until the Tournament of Champions in Kapalua, thinking about Finau’s place in the golfing world seems appropriate. We will discuss the case against Finau, and then for Finau before we decide which we think will take place in 2023.
Let’s start with the case against Finau for being a real contender on the PGA Tour 2023 season. The main thing Finau detractors point to is that his wins come in less prestigious events that either have limited fields or do not have many of the best players playing in them. His career wins are The Puerto Rico Open in 2016, The Northern trust in 2021, The 3M and Rocket Mortgage in 2022, and now this last weekend’s Houston Open. Puerto Rico was an opposite field event, Northern Trust was a limited field, the 3M and Rocket Mortgage all take place when a lot of the best players are taking time off, and Houston is a fall event. None of these events are exactly resume headlining wins that you could point to or real ‘remember where you were when’ moments. On top of that his major record leaves some room for improvement. He has four top five finishes in his career all taking place from 2018-2020 and in none of these tournaments did he feel like he was a real threat to win the event. Perhaps what stands out most about him is his inconsistencies. He is capable of having massive spike weeks no doubt. There are also plenty of weeks in the past that a 77 feels like it is lurking right around the corner. There has historically been a lack of a safety net to his game that just puts him out of contention with one blow up round in an event. Tony has the tools but he has yet to show up when it matters most and can’t seem to get out of his own way.
For the case in favor of Finau, let’s start with the fact that Finau has 5 career wins on the PGA TOUR! That is more than players like Viktor Hovland, Sungjae IM, and Shane Lowry. While it may not have happened for him yet when the lights are brightest, he certainly is capable of closing a tournament out. While the Northern Trust was a limited field event, it was an event that was almost a who’s who of the golf world at the time. This shows that he can indeed get it done in fields with strong competition. A change that Finau has made that has proved to pay off for him is his attack from the tee box. He is someone who has always been blessed with outstanding length. More recently, he has admitted to taking his foot off of the gas some on the tee box and trying to hit more and more fairway finders. While he is capable of hitting the ball consistently in the 180’s ball speed range, rarely do you see him do that. Instead he now tends to hang around the mid 170’s and it has greatly increased his ability to stay in good spots on the course and avoid trouble. There also is a case to say that his general demeanor has changed. For example he got cut last week from the World Wide Technology Championship. Instead of going about his business as usual he stayed over in Mexico for extra time to work on his game. He sees himself as a different class of player who is held to a higher standard now. There is a greater sense of expectation but also joy in the way that Finau is playing. Perhaps the biggest argument in favor of Finau is how all of these things have contributed to him becoming a player who does have a higher floor to his game. Since the Valero Texas Open last season, he has only carded two rounds where he has more than 2 shots lost to the field. This is huge for his ability to stay in contention in events. If you look back on his datagolf profile, he has years that are littered with -3 or worse rounds that just blew up his chances of contention. Those days for Finau seem to be a thing of the past.
While we all know that hot runs in golf come to an end and often times more abruptly than we anticipate, there is also something to be said for meaningful player improvement. Finau may not be a hot young player like a Zalatoris or a Cam Young, but he seems to have truly emerged as a new and improved player. The most convincing thing I see is his lack of 2 shots lost or worse rounds now. With the incredible spike week potential in Finau’s game, combined with a new level of consistency, joy, and just winning habits that have been on display, there is no reason to think that Finau is not truly one of the best players in the world and will be a factor in the big tournaments of 2023.
