While the American team may be massive favorites in this year’s edition of the Presidents Cup (-700 to win at the time of writing this) there is still a feeling of excitement and anticipation that comes from the annual big team golf event that is played. There will certainly be moments of tension and intrigue that come from this competition even as we anticipate a lopsided event to come. The driving factor for this will be the newness of the rosters for both the American and International side.
The American side has some more familiar faces to it compared to the international side. The players the make up the roster for Team USA are Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Sam Burns, Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele, Billy Horschel, Kevin Kisner, Cameron Young, Max Homa, Patrick Cantlay, and Tony Finau. I would consider them more familiar faces not necessarily because of Presidents Cup experience, as half of the USA roster will be competing in their first Presidents Cup. This paints a deceiving picture because some of the Presidents Cup newcomers are Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Sam Burns, and Max Homa. These four are 1st, 9th, 12th, and 16th in the OWGR respectively and Homa is coming in with great form after defending his title at last weeks Fortinent Championship in Napa. For Team USA The average OWGR ranking for Team USA is a staggering 11.6, this highlights not only their top end strength but also their rather impressive depth on the roster.
When this is compared to the average OWGR of the International side of 48.9 many people may think that an impeding blow out of a competition is all but certain for this years event. However, the roster and approach of the International side I believe tells a more competitive story than the OWGR does. The International roster includes Hideki Matsuyama, Sungjae Im, Corey Conners, Taylor Pendrith, Tom Kim, Adam Scott, Si Woo Kim, K.H. Lee, Mito Pereira, Cam Davis, Sebastian Munoz, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. The challenge that the International team will face this week at Quail Hollow are obvious. There are probably some of you reading this that reads the international roster and had a reaction along the lines of ‘Si Woo Who?’ So instead of belaboring that point, there are things to be optimistic about on The International Team side. For one, their approach is more modern and in touch than it ever has been before. On the No Laying Up podcast, Capitan Trevor Immelman spoke on all of the things they are investing in more than before. Using deeper analytics in picks and pairings, making sure caddies are well taken care of, making sure people have access to the foods they want to eat. Now these are obviously not directly on course golf related activities, but they can go a long way on impacting on course performance. Some of the less heralded players in this team I believe are in line for big weeks. Starting with Taylor Pendrith, he absolutely hits the cover off of the ball from the tee. He is a strokes gained monster off the tee and has a data golf ranking of 46th which greatly outpaces his OWGR of 109th. He is a great course fit for Quail Hollow and I believe he will have a winning record in this competition. Another player that is in store for a big week at Quail Hollow is Tom Kim. Bursting on to the scene winning the Wyndham Championship it is apparent that the 20 year old is not just a star of the future but a star of today as well. His exuberant energy and the confidence gained from already having a PGA Tour win under his belt, puts him in line to be a true x factor for The International side this weekend.
With all of this being said, It is time to make some predictions. The format for the Presidents Cup is as follows. It is a four day event. On day one It is five alternate shot matches. Day two is five best ball matches. Day three is the only 36 hole day of the event consisting of four alternate shot morning matches and four best ball evening matches. On day four they play 12 singles matches. Each of these matches give out on point to the winning team and .5 points to a draw. This all adds up to 30 points total and yes the cup can end in a tie! On day one I think we will see The International side get off to a hot start. They have nothing to lose as they are truly historic underdogs and have not won since 1998. I think The Internationals are up 3.5-1.5 after the first day of the event on the backs of strong play from Conners, Pendrith, Sungjae, and Tom Kim. This will be the shot in the arm that the United States team needs to get going. I think the best ball matches on day two are won 4-1 by Team USA and we see big contributions from Xander, Cam Young, and Scottie Scheffler, bringing the score to 5.5-4.5 in favor of USA. Day Three I think the depth of Team USA really shines through on a 36 hole day. They grab 5.5 of the available eight points on day three bringing the total score to 11-7. Singles matches on Sunday stay interesting for a while as we see big margins of victory from Adam Scott, who is competing in his 10th presidents cup, Corey Conners, Si Woo Kim, and Hideki Matsuyama. With a strong Sunday charge, it is not quite enough for the International team as they split Sunday evenly 6-6 resulting in an overall USA victory by a final score of 17-13.
Walking away from the tournament, we will see Justin Thomas as the leading USA point scorer. While Sungjae IM is the leading scorer for both The International team and the competition overall.
