The Leader Board sure is a lot more crowded than it was on the end of Friday. While we do not know exactly how the standings will shake out by the official end of round three, as play was suspended today due to inclement weather, we can see that round four will not be without drama at the top. Four players, Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Sungjae Im, and Rory McIlroy, all have approximately an at least five percent chance to win this years iteration of The Tour Championship according to Data Golf.
In a day that was anything but consistent with the stoppages and starting of play, Scottie Scheffler held just about as steady as one could. Recording a one under bogey free front nine and currently sitting even on the round when play was paused, Scheffler did what any good front runner does. He stuck to his game plan, continued to make aggressive swings at conservative targets, and avoided big mistakes at all chances. We know from Scottie’s multiple wins on tour this season, specifically at Augusta National, that he has no problem being a front runner in these situations and can close out a high class field such as the one this week at East Lake.
Xander on the other hand, rode some high highs and low lows so far through his third round. We know that he is capable of true greatness on this course, already having a win to his name at this event as well as never finishing worse than T-7 at East Lake. Xander coming out firing at pins with some serious swagger to his walk and playing the first three holes two under par really turned up the intensity in the final pairing making it feel almost like a match play situation. Then Xander’s aggressive play got him into some tough situations on holes 4 and 5 as he carded back to back bogies to set him back to even on the day. The rollercoaster ride continued as he bounced back with a pair of birdies on his next two holes. He then leveled out and sits at one under at the current delay in the round.
Sungjae has been scoring quite well this week as he has 14 birdies or better on the scorecard this week. He overcame a relatively quiet three under 67 to start the week to find himself sitting in solo third at this point in the tournament. With only being two holes ahead of the final group in order of play, he has plenty of time left to make up some more ground and will be laying in wait to pounce if the final group begins to falter.
Rory is having what is shaping out to maybe be an all time Rory style week of play. Starting off the tournament by carding a triple bogey 7, and going on to make four other bogies in round one alone, Rory still finds himself in solo fourth thanks to two main things. The first being his starting strokes and starting the tournament off at four under par. The second being the absolute staple of Rory’s game, his incredible driving distance. While East Lake only having one par five per nine seems like a big disadvantage to Rory, he has still been able to take some hyper aggressive lines on some par fours this week. And while there may not be many par fives, he is capitalizing on them at an astonishing rate by being 7 under par through five par 5’s played so far in the tournament. Watching Rory play is never dull and this week is no exception. As long as there is golf to be played and Rory has the driving going like this, you simply cannot rule him out of contention.
Looking ahead, as fun as it would be to see this mostly two horse race turn into a true three or four, it seems as if it will come down to the final grouping of Scheffler and Schauffele. While Scottie may be the ultimate metronomic front runner, Schauffele has a spark in him that seems to come alive at East Lake unlike anywhere else. Look for a close battle down the stretch between these two, ultimately with Schauffele’s extreme confidence carrying him to a first place finish and netting him the coveted 18 million dollar first place purse that comes along with this culminating event of the season.
